Medium-sized church crisis

Are you hearing about an increase in house churches and/or church plants?

I think this problem is similar (though not the same) as restaurants or other businesses that have 3 choices to compete on – uniqueness, quality and price. In fact, most have no choice but to focus on quality or price. The ones in the middle like Bob’s Big Boy get squeezed by Coco’s and Jack in the Box or McDonald’s. One place is (at least, perceived) higher quality and the other is cheaper, but not perceived to be THAT much lower quality. Some people shop on price and some on quality which naturally means most gravitate away from those businesses caught in the middle. I know that a lot of people object to looking at church communities (hopefully they really are communities!) in this way, but the reality I see is that a lot of people are church hoppers who are looking for whatever it is they each are looking for. (I have at least one relative like this.) I believe some people LIKE small churches and some like what big churches can do because of their size. Usually those programs can be done better in a megachurch if they are working in church that’s not as large. There may be people out there who are looking for medium-size churches, but I think they are a small group. Perhaps they should focus on their uniqueness as far as marketing issues go. Or maybe they can read Tony Campolo & Mary Albert Darling’s The God of Intimacy and Action and pray and put hands and feet to the gospel of Jesus. Does God want their church to become a small church or a medium-size church or a megachurch or?

I have simply seen the small churches fail not noticing medium ones going away. Cuious as to what constitutes a “medium” sized church.

Shortage of Youth ministers?

I interpret your diagram to imply middle size will become mega churches themselves OR will shirnk to small church size having lost members to mega churches… and then the middle man would simply cease to exist. I would hope enough people in the Body of Christ are sincere enough about their faith to not abandon their church families just beacuse times got hard. I think the diagram may be a bit too general… you know? I’d like to see more arrows – labeled to specify causes for the movement.

Med -> Mega:
1) Mega is still offering programs
2) experiencing growth as people NEED God in this crisis

Med-> Small:
1) loss of members due to crises of faith
2) loss of members dues to working extra jobs/shifts to make ends meet
3) loss of members due to moving in with or closer to family
4) loss of members to the Mega Church down the road
5) loss of members to the small church (closer to home, appearance of more sincere faith, follwing an Associate Pastor let go from staff, etc…)

As the crisis drags on – it will come down to how specific churches have implemented the idea of universal preisthood. Have we enabled or neutered the idea of lay ministry? It will really be determined by the leadership styles of the Pastor(s).
Endowments will certainly be dipped into – and how they are spent will speak volumes to the world about what’s really important to the church – for better or for worse…

I agree with Mike…”the Master still loves his bride and will care for her through this time. He uses painful times to produce beauty.” Of course what the Master determines to be beauty may rise from piles of pruned branches and heaps of ashes… perhaps a more pure bride?

interesting thots…although i’m not sure the dust has settled enough to really say. considering the average church in the states is still around 75 on the weekend…it will be interesting to see. i’d argue that at all levels there is going to be some restructuring of “the how” ministry is accomplished…which also might push even some clarity on “the what” or “the why” of what we do. there isn’t any margin to work from.
we moved to the multi-site format and even that is not perfect.
also even churches who have endowments are having to rethink because of the loss of value in the market. Glad our God reigns. the rest is details for us to live through. well done adam.

thanks for the visual.

You’ve hit on something here Adam. I just came off of a week of meetings with pastors (including youth pastors). The recurring theme was budget cuts. Some had taken pay cuts. Others had seen colleagues laid off. Others had their conference line items cut (they weren’t able to be there). All are at medium sized churches. And yet I’ve heard of 3 church plants in Chicago that are planned for the next few months. This will be interesting to track.

Adam, your observations are spot-on. I would broaden it to include ministries as well. Larger ministries generally have a substantial donor base to turn to in times like these. New or start-up ministries have smaller donor bases but generally have lower overhead. It’s the ones in the middle that are being squeezed.

I have a friend who for years led a company worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Having been through this sort of thing before, he says churches must do what businesses do and make tough choices now, not tomorrow. He laid out the plan his company follows. They have already cut expenses across the board by 25 percent and may do more. “It’s tough now but we’ll be in good shape when this recession finally ends,” he told me. Churches have a tougher time doing this, some wait too late.

Anyway, neat little graph. I’ve thought for years that middle-sized churches are being squeezed out of the market. The recession just accelerates that trend. Ray

Anh