Will Facebook die like MySpace?

Myspace
When ads, then adults, then porn took over MySpace
the number of users died quickly as people looking for social networking fled to newly opened Facebook. While there were a lot of factors for the death of MySpace, too many ads was clearly one of the issues.

Facebook
On November 16th, 2006 I posted that I thought MySpace was dying. (If you google the term "myspace dying" I’ve been #1 on that search term ever since and get 1-2 hits on that term daily.) People thought I was crazy! But in the end I was right… most people I know who switched to Facebook quickly drop their MySpace.

The problem for every online community
As a web developer there is a tenuous balance between creating community and monetizing the site. On the one hand the community wants no advertising. But at the same time they want the place they hang out with be free. Users demand a cool experience… one that costs lots of time and money to provide… and they don’t want anyone to get paid for it. I know this personally because this is the same tension we feel at YMX all the time… for most sites, the investors win out of the community, and ads slowly take over.

The death of Facebook is two-fold

  1. Facebook applications are killing Facebook. In May 2007, Facebook started allowing 3rd party developers to add application to the site. Almost immediately the became annoying. All of a sudden applications could produce dozens of annoying emails to users without their permission. With every Facebook application developed, people get less interested. What drew people to Facebook was the simplicity… what will drive them away is over-customization.
  2. Ads will kill Facebook. Application developers, like Slide, want to get paid for their efforts. I can’t blame them for wanting to put ads in their applications but at the same time, it’s going to create a big problem that will drive people away from Facebook.

Google
Slide is just one of many developers trying to sell advertising in
widgets. While Slide sells its own sponsorships, several application
developers have opted to use ad networks for monetization. In fact, the
latest mover in the widget-as-media-network space is none other than
Google.
Read the rest at AdAge

Here’s my prediction
If Facebook doesn’t slow down developers adding applications and cut off ads on applications, users will switch to another social network with less ads and less annoyance. It’s all about permission… people will display advertising on their sites and they will receive emails from sites… but they want to give their permission to do that. Remove the permission and they will remove themselves.


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7 responses to “Will Facebook die like MySpace?”

  1. Mykel Avatar

    I must have missed the death of Myspace. It is stil the number 1 social networking site and it is growing in numbers everyday. Maybe not as fast as it once was but among the 12-19 demographic it is still widely popular.
    What will kill it will be if they ever charge for using it.

  2. adam Avatar

    Mykel… someone is paying for myspace to keep it free, you know? $580 million and it’s free… uh huh.

    Go to Alexa.com and see how much Facebook has gained on MySpace. Comparing the buzz between the two… one isn’t on the radar (myspace) and one is all over the radar. (facebook.) (do a tecnorati search for that)

    Nothing on the internet is truly free. It’s like TV… you can either directly or indirectly pay for entertainment.

  3. Amy Avatar

    I don’t think that MySpace is dying, per say. It does have a good following amongst some folks, but I prefer Facebook, or at least I did. It was a great way to safely communicate with friends…but you’re right, the ads and applications are killing the thing. On one hand, you want the aps because they’re kind of cool. But they also clutter up pages and get really old after about five minutes. I really enjoyed the lack of ads on Facebook…until recently.

  4. adam Avatar

    To me it goes back to buzz. No one is saying that MySpace is “2008.” It was a hit in 2006 and it’s now trickling in pop culture. While they may have traffic numbers that are still high I wonder how inflated that is by spammers… an issue facebook doesn’t have at all.

    I’m not even saying Facebook is 2008. I think that there will be a social network fad per year for a while… kind of the way Survivor gave way to ___ on TV. Until the publics appetite for social networking is gone, new ones will over take the king.

  5. Cathy Avatar
    Cathy

    I couldn’t stand Myspace because most people’s pages are just plain unreadable. Facebook is better in that regard, except for the millions of applications that are starting to overwhelm pages.

    I don’t even have “Superpoke” yet I get a superpoke email probably once a day from someone. It’s basically spam to me since it’s an advertisement for an application I don’t want. Look out, world! One of these days, I’m gonna poke back!

  6. Jeff Greathouse Avatar

    Yah, I am tired of seeing the aps and I hate trying to retrieve what someone said or did and have to lad the ap ..

    End the Aps !

  7. Mykel Avatar

    I hear what you are saying…it’s not the “in thing”

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