A prediction

Green_earthThis may not surprise many people, but it will some. Young voters will be swayed by environmental issues in the next election.

Whereas traditional "Christian voters" have always been activated by issues such as family values, abortion and taxes, in the next election young evangelicals will vote for the environmental candidate.

Increasingly, emerging evangelical leaders in their 20s and 30s have made it clear that taking care of the earth is a high priority. Topics such as abortion and family values are important but pretty mild on their food chain… right up there with "does this candidate attend church?" Younger voters are sophisticated enough to know that a conservative White House, legislature, and Supreme Court hasn’t been enough to sway those issues significantly in the past 20 years, so they take a back burner to environmental issues.

The democrats will lose the 2008 election if they focus on the war in Iraq. They look un-American when they do that and that won’t activate their voters. If republicans focus on the baby boomer calling card of family values and fiscal responsibility, they will also fail to activate young voters. Those 22-32 will sway the 2008 election the most. These are new voters who haven’t made up their mind like their parents have. I wonder why politicians even bother with baby boomers since most have already made up their mind for the general election and it’s more than a year away.

The winning candidate will win because he strikes a chord with young evangelicals. He (or she!) will sell young voters that he cares about conservative issues enough to protect family values but will have a realistic and strikingly un-similar Al Gore voice about the environment.

Who is that candidate? The market is still wide open. No idea. I do know this. This candidate won’t be liked by baby boomers… who are about to learn their power was short-lived. Clinton and Bush were enough of that generation.(Interestingly side note that none of them served actively in their generations war)

A theory. This neo-conservative closet green candidate will pick someone from Hollywood-fame as a running mate.






One response to “A prediction”

  1. Todd Porter Avatar

    You are right that the new voters will be the one’s to sway this years election and that the environmental voters are this election’s values voters of the last election.

    But I disagree about the war in Iraq thing. I think it depends on what they focus on in regards to that. If they focus on the “bring our boys home” policy with the war, they will win. But if they just solely brow beat President Bush over the war, then they will lose.

    The 2 biggest issues in this next election will be bringing home the troops and the environment.

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