The New Economy Emerging

“This is a bad economy…”

“Pretty cool, especially in this economy…”

“You know, in this economy, every dollar counts.”

I don’t know about you. But I hear bad news about this economy all the time. It’s at the point where it drives me nuts. You see, it’s one of those things that’s said on the news or people believe that just isn’t true. Want some proof? Read this AP article from today.

There was a recession, no doubt. From about 2007 until late 2009 we had a rough go in America.

Here’s an example of 3 stocks in my portfolio, this is the last 10 years of their stock price. You’ll see a dip for the recession, but these companies have been doing great for a while.

The simple reality is that… starting in about 2011… the economy has been ROARING. The stock market has been on fire, I’ve been getting 30%-70% returns on my investments, companies are hiring, people are starting businesses… even the housing market has recovered quite a bit. (House prices here in San Diego are out-of-control. But that’s the nature of our market, it overheats and bursts 2-3 times per decade.)

Meanwhile, the media has done it’s best to convince you that we’re in a weak, troubled economy.

The question you need to ask yourself is: Why? 

It’s most definitely been coordinated and for a reason. But why? 

(Hint: Because it’s good for corporations for the general public to think that the sky is falling.)

The New Economy

I want to share something that I’m seeing and ask if you think I’m crazy or not.

First, listen to the news and you’ll hear about an unemployment problem, particularly acute among young adults. As I’ve said before… I don’t think we have an unemployment problem. I think we have an unemployable problem.

There are lots of people out there, maybe as much as 10% of the population, who are just not employable for a variety of reasons. (Too many to document here.)

Second, there’s a new cottage industry revolution underway. More and more, highly skilled workers are leaving the traditional 9-5 role behind to go home and start their own businesses. In short, they don’t need a “job” because they can work for a number of companies within their specialty, working their own way at their own hours, from their own homes. And they do.

I know HUNDREDS of people who have done this. And you know what? None of them show up in state or federal reports… meaning this revolution doesn’t end up on the news. They don’t hit the rolls of unemployed so they aren’t counted or tracked. And since they are bootstraps instead of getting a small business loan, they aren’t counted or tracked as start-ups.

Best part of this not getting reported in the media? Most of the media are now “work-from-home” freelancers who write or report for a number of news agencies who have laid off tons of people to adjust to this new economy. Zing! 

Third, even less-skilled workers can now start their own businesses because the cost of entry is often free. Have you been to a farmers market lately? There are TONS of bootstrapped start-ups working on product development in farmers markets across the country. Then there’s the online stuff… Elance, Fivver, Ebay, Etsy, Craigslist, Amazon Sellers… all of these have a zero cost entry point to start earning money right now. 

Fourth, the Affordable Care Act— the right-derided Obamacare– means that you don’t have to work for a major employer to get good health insurance. I can’t tell you how many people I’ve met over the years that work at jobs they don’t like because they need the insurance provided by their employer. Let me be honest, that’s not ultimately good for them and that’s not ultimately good for their employer. The AFA will, over time, lead to more and more people buying private insurance and saying “no thanks” to employer-provided insurance.

What’s the net impact?

1. Employee portability – Think about it like this. If I don’t have to work somewhere for insurance– like I have insurance I buy through an exchange that I like, I won’t stay at that job if I don’t like it because that relationship is less complicated.
2. More control of employee wages – As a small business owner, a big part of what I have to pay someone is covering their insurance costs. If I could higher someone I’d gladly pay them more if they were going to take care of insurance themselves. And you know what? That’s what the employee wants, anyway. Choice and control of their own benefits. Want to take home more money? Pick worse insurance. Want better insurance? Spend more money. As an employer I don’t want to be in that business anyway!
3. More part-timer doing expert-level roles. Let’s be honest. We each have parts of our jobs that we don’t like and we aren’t good at. Taking away the “full-time” label means that a lot more people are getting permanent part-time roles, absolutely vital to the companies, but with tons of flexibility. Increasingly, we are seeing specialists working 2 part-time jobs at a net higher wage and net happier employee quotient… or more likely, an anchor part-time job and a number of freelance gigs. (For church workers, I think this is the next big wave of employment…. why hire a full-time high school pastor when you really need a part-time high school director who also owns a small business?)