The Evangelical Swing

democrat republicanWith just a few months left until the general election the talking heads are busy hypothesizing about minutia. Of course the truth is that both the McCain and Obama campaigns are largely on hiatus. They are fund raising and building networks while Americans enjoy the summer.

I think the media is doing their best to keep this race interesting. In fact, most people believe it will be a blowout. I think we’re talking Bush vs. Dukakis numbers for Obama in November. Bush won 80% of the electorate in 1988 and I think Obama may win more than that.

Here’s why I’m predicting a landslide. (Please note, I’m not “endorsing a candidate.” Truth is, I’m voting for GW Bush. He bought my vote again!)

  • The pendulum is swinging. The more McCain tries to appeal to conservatives the more the swing voters realize he’s not their guy. Americans wants a more liberal president… McCain is pandering to the wrong people.
  • Abortion means nothing in this cycle. Pro-life people, like myself, recognize that if Bush couldn’t move legislation on abortion no one can. Plus, both candidates are pro-choice so we are left to pick the less of two evils.
  • Obama owns the green crowd. Green is the biggest marketing term of the year. McCain is big oil and Obama is big green.
  • It’s an age thing. You’ve got a young candidate talking about change and an old candidate saying “stay the course.” Which message appeals to voters under 30? Have you seen the numbers from the primaries? People under 30 will vote in 2008.
  • Obama has a recession proof message. The worse the economy looks the more he can say, “Do you want to keep doing what we’re doing? Then stay republican!
  • Obama owns the web. I’ve long said that the candidate who masters the web in 2008 will take the White House. Look at McCain’s website and then look at Obama’s.
  • Obama owns the unions. Let’s face it. In states like Michigan, New York, and Ohio that matters.
  • Young evangelicals are disavowing the politics of James Dobson. Check out this site, In fact, I said the same thing on March 17th, 2007. He’s not my guy, hasn’t been my guy for a long time. While Dobson isn’t endorsing McCain just yet, it’s not like Dobson is going to endorse Obama!

In 2000 and 2004, the media said that evangelicals like me elected George W. Bush as president. It’s my prediction that a massive shift will happen in 2008 as young evangelical voters decide they are ready to cease single issue voting. And the truth is, once you get to non-abortion issues that evangelicals care about… the pendulum will shift.


One response to “The Evangelical Swing”

  1. Steve Avatar

    I can’t understand why more people can’t see it. McCain is the Frog Boiler!

    What do I mean? There is an old allegory about how to boil a frog. It is said that if you drop a frog into a pot of boiling water it will immediately jump out.

    But if you drop a frog in water that is slightly warm and turn up the heat gradually then the frog just sits there and lets itself be boiled alive, without attempting to jump out of the pot, without even knowing that it is indeed being boiled alive.

    This allegory has been applied again, and again regarding the American people’s reaction to liberalism/socialism. And it is pretty clear who is who if you apply this allegory to this year’s election.

    So let’s vote for the candidate who will make the frog jump out of the pot so we can have a true conservative in 2012. Otherwise we will all get gradually boiled alive.

    After all it took Carter to get us Reagan.

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